Los Angeles is on track to record its lowest number of homicides in nearly 60 years. Through the first half of 2025, the city saw a more than 20 percent drop in killings compared to the same period last year, part of a broader national decline in violent crime. In South L.A., which historically experienced some of the city’s highest rates of violence, the declines have been especially pronounced.

What makes this trend significant is not just the numbers, but the conditions under which they are happening. The LAPD currently has the lowest staffing level in more than two decades and police stops, particularly the kinds that disproportionately target Black and Latino drivers, have also fallen sharply – between 2019 and 2022, LAPD reduced pretextual stops by over 85 percent. Despite warnings that this would lead to more violence, the department found no increase in gun crime, property crime, or homicides. In some areas, crime declined even further.

These outcomes challenge a deeply embedded narrative: that more policing leads to more safety. In Los Angeles, the opposite now appears to be true. Crime has fallen while the number of officers and police encounters have decreased. The city’s most policed neighborhoods are experiencing both fewer stops and fewer homicides. Community organizations have expanded violence interruption programs and invested in youth outreach and housing efforts, providing support that traditional enforcement has often failed to deliver.

At the same time, however, LAPD officers are using deadly force more often. So far this year, LAPD officers have fired their weapons 25 times, nearly matching the total number for all of last year (25 vs. 29). As of mid-July, these incidents included 21 people being shot and nine killed, reflecting the highest number of officer-involved shootings at this point in the year since 2018.

Despite these facts, the idea that police staffing must be increased continues to dominate media and political conversations. Part of the reason is the powerful influence of copaganda, or the widespread media framing that positions police as society’s primary defenders, often without scrutiny. Police departments routinely shape public narratives through press access, television partnerships, and coordinated messaging strategies, and local crime coverage often magnifies isolated incidents and reinforces fear, even when long-term data shows a drop in violence. The result is a distorted sense of reality that keeps budgets high and accountability low.

Now, just as local data points toward a different model of safety, the federal government is heading in the opposite direction with Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” a sweeping budget and policy package that expands federal policing power. The bill increases surveillance funding, militarizes immigration enforcement, weakens sanctuary protections, and authorizes broad crackdowns on protest and dissent. We are already seeing the ramifications of the expanding police state in Los Angeles, as ICE raids terrorize the city.

The federal justification for these policies rests on the same argument that Los Angeles is quietly disproving. We are told that public safety requires more police, more arrests, and more enforcement. But in Los Angeles, the reality is that crime is falling while the police force is shrinking, stops are declining, and alternative forms of intervention are showing results. The LAPD’s own data suggests that scaling back everyday enforcement has not made the city less safe. In fact, the numbers suggest it may be making the city more stable. This shift should be the focus of public conversation.